Vatican correspondent John Allen talks with local reporters prior to his lecture at All Saints.
Sentinel photo by Gerry Lewin

One of the best-informed Vatican reporters last week offered Western Oregon Catholics a look into Catholicism of the future.

If his predictions are borne out, John Allen, Jr.’s 10 worldwide trends will turn the church on its institutional head.

The 42-year-old former high school religion teacher spoke during the annual All Saints Parish lecture series. He is Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter and contributor on things Catholic to CNN.

These “mega-trends” — which he describes as “deep impulses shaping Catholic thought and life” — are a sort of tectonic plate that lies beneath modern-day church fault lines.

Allen’s institutional-changing trends are:
• The North/South church membership shift.
• The rise of Islam.
• Global demographics.
• Expanding lay roles.
• Aging population.
• Biotech revolution.
• Globalization.
• Ecology
• Multi-polarization.
• Pentecostalism.

Because of population shifts, Africa, Asia and Latin America are emerging as major centers of church energy, eclipsing Europe and North America, he says.

The billion-member Muslim faith group is beginning to play the role for Catholicism that Communism once did. Islam is becoming the church’s chief ideological rival.

One of the defining features of the church since Vatican Council days in the 1960s is the increasingly bitter fight between church liberals and conservatives.

Lay-led groups are taking on a high priority in the church because of their members’ commitment. These predominantly conservative organizations are more concerned with changing the world than changing the church, he says.

Allen’s other trends are the biotech revolution, in which the church is challenged by advances in medical science; globalization, in which the growing integration of worldwide finance, politics and culture are creating unparalled wealth for some, while billions more get by on less than $1 a day; multi-polarization, in which the church is finding itself in a world where the emerging dominant powers, China and India, are not shaped by Christianity; and pentecostalism, which is competiting with the church for worldwide influence.

The clergy sex abuse scandal used to figure in his top ten list, but apparently has been dropped for inclusion in his soon-to-be-published sixth book. Costs associated with settlements have surpassed $1 billion so far and counting, and bankrupted several U.S. dioceses.

The Kansas-born only child and his wife recently moved from Rome to the Upper Westside of Manhattan. He said his Colorado-born, Jewish wife wanted to live the Annie Hall life in New York City. He still plans to spend more time in Rome once his new book is sent to Doubleday for printing and distribution.

Allen is known for his intelligence, drive and non-ideological approach to covering the Vatican, besides North Korea, probably one of the most secretative entities on the planet.

At an earlier press conference at Oregon Catholic Press, Allen was asked by Colin Fogarty of OPB about how the Portland Archdiocese’s bankruptcy was viwed by the Vatican. Allen answered the question, and then segued on for five minutes about the contribution the church in America has made to bettering the lives of tens of millions of young children through education and health care.

As for Cardinal William Levada, former Portland archbishop, Allen says it is clear the top American at the Vatican plans to keep a low profile, eschewing talks and lectures. Levada has a reputation for demanding accountability at the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, Allen said.